Uncertainty Estimation: The AI/ML Community’s Quest for Trustworthy Intelligence

Latest 50 papers on uncertainty estimation: Oct. 6, 2025

In the rapidly evolving landscape of AI and Machine Learning, model accuracy is no longer the sole metric of success. As AI systems permeate safety-critical domains like healthcare, autonomous driving, and climate science, the ability to understand what models don’t know – their uncertainty – has become paramount. This crucial aspect, known as uncertainty estimation, is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by innovative research addressing everything from LLM hallucinations to robust medical diagnostics. Let’s dive into some of the latest breakthroughs that are shaping the future of reliable AI.### The Big Ideas & Core Innovations: Making AI More Self-Awareoverarching theme in recent research is a concerted effort to imbue AI models with a clearer sense of their own confidence (or lack thereof). This involves developing novel methods to quantify uncertainty, integrate it into model decision-making, and even communicate it in human-understandable ways. For instance, the paper Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models for Question Answering from Iowa State University introduces ULXMQA, a framework providing rigorous, post-hoc uncertainty guarantees for LLM-generated explanations, crucial for understanding model confidence. This resonates with Can Large Language Models Express Uncertainty Like Human? by University of Sydney, City University of Hong Kong, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and University of Oxford which explores linguistic confidence (hedging expressions) as a human-centered approach to communicate LLM uncertainty efficiently and reliably.the notorious hallucination problem in LLMs, Chinese Academy of Sciences in Semantic Reformulation Entropy for Robust Hallucination Detection in QA Tasks presents Semantic Reformulation Entropy (SRE). SRE combines input diversification and multi-signal clustering to robustly detect hallucinations and enhance uncertainty estimation, particularly against epistemic uncertainty. Building on this, University of California San Diego, Stanford University, and Northeastern University introduce SimulRAG in SimulRAG: Simulator-based RAG for Grounding LLMs in Long-form Scientific QA, a simulator-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework that tackles hallucination in scientific QA by integrating scientific simulators and using uncertainty estimation scores (UE+SBA) for efficient claim verification. This direct integration of domain knowledge for uncertainty is a powerful trend.LLMs, uncertainty is being refined across various modalities. Dalhousie University proposes a variance-gated approach in Uncertainty Estimation using Variance-Gated Distributions, offering a more nuanced decomposition of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. For discrete data, Fully Heteroscedastic Count Regression with Deep Double Poisson Networks from Delicious AI, Brigham Young University, Arizona State University, and Ohio State University presents DDPN, a novel neural network for count regression that accurately models both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The theoretical underpinnings are further strengthened by work like Low-rank variational dropout: Uncertainty and rank selection in adapters by Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which integrates variational dropout into low-rank adapters for calibrated uncertainty quantification and automated rank pruning in parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT).practical AI deployments, improving evaluation is critical. The paper Addressing Pitfalls in the Evaluation of Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Natural Language Generation from Johannes Kepler University Linz critically examines flaws in current NLG uncertainty evaluation, proposing alternative risk indicators like ensemble LLM-as-a-judge variants and an Elo rating-based aggregation technique for more objective comparisons. This holistic approach to evaluation is essential for moving the field forward.### Under the Hood: Models, Datasets, & Benchmarksinnovations highlighted above are often underpinned by new architectures, specialized datasets, and robust benchmarks. Here’s a glimpse into the resources driving these advancements:Deep Double Poisson Network (DDPN): Introduced in Fully Heteroscedastic Count Regression with Deep Double Poisson Networks, DDPN is a novel neural network for count regression that explicitly models both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Code is available at https://github.com/delicious-ai/ddpn.UQ-SONet: Proposed in Deep set based operator learning with uncertainty quantification by Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, this permutation-invariant operator learning framework integrates set transformer embedding with conditional variational autoencoders for robust predictions under noisy, sparse observations. No public code yet.SimulRAG Benchmark: SimulRAG: Simulator-based RAG for Grounding LLMs in Long-form Scientific QA constructs a new benchmark for long-form scientific QA in climate science and epidemiology, with ground truth verified by simulations and human annotators. No public code yet.SpurBreast Dataset: SpurBreast: A Curated Dataset for Investigating Spurious Correlations in Real-world Breast MRI Classification introduces a new curated dataset for studying spurious correlations in breast MRI data, designed to help researchers build more robust medical AI models. No public code yet.FiD-GP: Flow-Induced Diagonal Gaussian Processes proposes a Gaussian Process-inspired module for uncertainty estimation, reducing model size and training costs while maintaining accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/anonymouspaper987/FiD-GP.git.RuleNet: A transformer-based model specifically tailored for tabular data, introduced in Improving Deep Tabular Learning by Afeka Academic College of Engineering, incorporating piecewise linear quantile projections and feature masking ensembles for robustness and uncertainty estimation. No public code yet.UM-Depth: UM-Depth : Uncertainty Masked Self-Supervised Monocular Depth Estimation with Visual Odometry proposes a self-supervised monocular depth estimation method using visual odometry and uncertainty masking. Code is available at https://github.com/UM-Depth/um-depth.SVN-ICP: For reliable LiDAR odometry, SVN-ICP: Uncertainty Estimation of ICP-based LiDAR Odometry using Stein Variational Newton by Technical University of Berlin introduces a method using Stein Variational Newton methods. Code is available at https://github.com/LIS-TU-Berlin/SVN-ICP.git.KG-SAM: KG-SAM: Injecting Anatomical Knowledge into Segment Anything Models via Conditional Random Fields enhances the Segment Anything Model (SAM) for medical imaging with anatomical knowledge and uncertainty quantification via CRF-based refinement. No public code yet.GeoEvolve: MIT, Technical University of Munich, and Stanford University introduce this multi-agent LLM framework in GeoEvolve: Automating Geospatial Model Discovery via Multi-Agent Large Language Models for automated geospatial algorithm design, demonstrating improved spatial interpolation and uncertainty quantification. Code is available at https://github.com/google/OpenEvolve and https://github.com/google/GeoKnowRAG.DEviS: Towards Reliable Medical Image Segmentation by Modeling Evidential Calibrated Uncertainty introduces Deep Evidential Segmentation (DEviS) for medical image segmentation, providing robust, calibrated uncertainty estimates in semi-supervised settings with noisy data. Code is available at https://github.com/Cocofeat/DEviS.### Impact & The Road Ahead: Towards Truly Trustworthy AIimplications of this wave of uncertainty estimation research are profound. In medical AI, as highlighted by the position paper Position Paper: Integrating Explainability and Uncertainty Estimation in Medical AI by University of Health Sciences and National Institute of Medical Research, robust uncertainty quantification is not just an enhancement but a necessity for building trust. Projects like Enhancing Safety in Diabetic Retinopathy Detection: Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning Models with Rejection Capabilities by multiple affiliations and Uncertainty-Aware Retinal Vessel Segmentation via Ensemble Distillation by University of Ibadan et al. demonstrate practical applications where models can “abstain” from uncertain diagnoses, leading to safer clinical decision-making. Furthermore, Uncertainty-Supervised Interpretable and Robust Evidential Segmentation shows how aligning uncertainty estimation with human reasoning can make medical AI systems more interpretable and reliable.*autonomous driving, the ability of 3D object detectors to calibrate their predictive class distributions, as shown in Calibrating the Full Predictive Class Distribution of 3D Object Detectors for Autonomous Driving by Technical University of Munich, Daimler AG, Toyota Technological Institute, and Toyota Research Institute, is crucial for safety. Similarly, UnLoc: Leveraging Depth Uncertainties for Floorplan Localization by ETH Zurich, Stanford University, and Microsoft improves indoor localization by explicitly modeling depth uncertainty. The broader impact extends to climate science**, where Uncertainty-Aware Hourly Air Temperature Mapping at 2 km Resolution via Physics-Guided Deep Learning from University of Southern California generates high-resolution, uncertainty-quantified temperature maps, essential for robust environmental modeling.ahead, the synergy between uncertainty estimation and other critical AI capabilities, such as explainability and robustness to out-of-distribution data, will define the next generation of intelligent systems. As Calibration in Deep Learning: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art by Amazon highlights, well-calibrated models are foundational for trustworthy AI. The research presented here pushes the boundaries across diverse domains, moving us closer to a future where AI not only performs tasks but also understands and communicates its limitations, fostering greater trust and enabling more responsible deployment in high-stakes environments. The journey towards truly self-aware and reliable AI is well underway, and these papers mark exciting milestones on that path.